It’s been a very dry summer. Is there relief in sight?
It’s been a hot, dry summer and fall, but forecasters are hinting that we might expect normal rainfall to return to the Brazos River basin for the remainder of the year.
The summer started with wetter than normal weather across the state that, unfortunately, didn’t last long. Summer rainfall totals were below average for Texas, according to the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.
Little rainfall means drought conditions emerged throughout the majority of the state. At the start of summer, only 3% of the state was facing abnormally dry conditions. That number rose to more than 50% by summers end, with an additional 10% of the state facing moderate or worse drought conditions. As October draws to a close, more than 95 % of the Brazos River basin is experiencing drought conditions.
Though it’s been a dry summer for BRA reservoirs, fall looks promising.
“Droughts have a minimal impact on reservoir levels during the fall and winter months,” said BRA Senior Hydrologist Chris Higgins.
Reservoir levels stabilize during the fall months due to two main factors, Higgins said. In the fall, the days become shorter and cooler, which causes less evaporation. At this time, municipal and irrigation demands also decrease as vegetation that requires watering starts to go dormant and homeowners water their lawn and gardens less.
To inform the public of how drought conditions may impact water supply, BRA hydrologists prepare reservoir capacity projections two months in advance. The reports take into account water levels of the 11 reservoirs that make up the BRA water supply system (lakes Possum Kingdom, Granbury, Limestone, Whitney, Belton, Proctor, Somerville, Stillhouse Hollow, Granger, Georgetown and Aquilla) providing one projection for extremely dry conditions and another projection for normal rainfall conditions.
The current capacity projections predict that under extremely dry conditions including little to no rain, high evaporation and minimal flows in the rivers and tributaries, the BRA Water Supply System could be at 88% full. With average rainfall conditions, including normal rainfall, normal evaporation and average flows in the river and tributaries; the System is projected to be at 95% full. The two sets of predictions are updated monthly during dry times as reservoir levels decline.
Despite a drier pattern, lake levels throughout the state have remained fuller than conditions during the same period a year ago, at 86%. The Brazos River Authority Water Supply System is currently 93% full.
The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service’s seasonal outlook anticipates that drought conditions will continue in western and southern areas of the state through November, though only a small portion of the Brazos basin can expect that. The service forecasts that near-normal rainfall will come to the Brazos River basin.
“The rain is always welcome so long as it doesn’t cause flood damage,” Higgins said. “Anytime we do experience high flow events and gate operations are needed to safely pass the excess flow through the dams, we have a group of five hydrologists and engineers on staff that conveys release decisions to the projects.”
As for a harsh winter, Texans shouldn’t expect a terrible one.
“The latest official seasonal outlook from the Climate Prediction Center doesn’t have any place in the U.S. in line for a harsh winter,” said State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon. “That’s partly because you can’t predict where a particular cold front will go three months in advance, so someplace will probably end up with a harsh winter, but it’s expected to be in the minority.”
“Usually the core of fall severe weather season is October and November, but we’ve seen that damaging and deadly tornadoes can form in any month of the year,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “Severe weather in the fall is usually found in a belt from Texas to North Carolina, unlike the spring when Texas to Kansas sees a lot of the action.”
The largest recorded tornado outbreak occurred in November 1992, where 105 recorded tornadoes affected over 13 states stretching from Texas to the Carolinas. Twenty-six people were killed and more than 600 were injured. More than $7 million in damages were reported. The Weather Channel said the outbreak began in Houston, where seven tornadoes spawned in just two hours.
Tornadic activity during the fall is believed to be caused by upper-level troughs and cold fronts that affect the south, according to the Weather Channel.
Another weather concern stretches through November: the Atlantic hurricane season. The season doesn’t officially end until Nov. 30.
Businesses, homeowners and communities are urged to revisit plans for severe weather and emergencies. The Federal Emergency Management Agency said the following should be included in every emergency plan:
- A set place to meet in an emergency
- Knowledge of the nearest storm shelter locations
- Maps of the location, as well as evacuation routes
- A list of emergency contacts
- Where one has access to food, gas, and medical care
- A packet of essential documentation, like copies of IDs, medical and insurance cards
To learn more about BRA reservoir projections, visit our website.