El Niño is gone. Are we welcoming La Niña?

Summer is here in Texas and it’s bringing the heat. Some areas of the Brazos River Basin have already experienced 100-plus-degree days.

“It’s summer in Texas, so of course it will be hot,” explains John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Center at Texas A&M University. "The abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico back that up. That means it will be humid, too. However, there's not any clear indication that the summer will be especially wet or dry."

Thankfully, the spring rains were a welcome sight to end drought conditions in some areas of the basin.

Based on the Brazos River Authority's drought contingency plan, the Stage 1 Drought Watch was rescinded in February for Lakes Possum Kingdom, Granbury, Whitney, Aquilla, Granger, Somerville and Limestone.

The Little River system didn't receive help from those same rain events. However, in May, the Stage One Drought Watch was lifted from Lake's Belton, Stillhouse Hollow, and Georgetown. Lake Proctor moved from a Stage 4 Pro-Rata Curtailment to a Stage 1 Drought Watch in June.

With the exception of Lake Proctor, nearly all the reservoirs within the BRA's water supply system filled to capacity and then some. Since the reservoirs owned and operated by the BRA are not designed to hold flood water, releases were made from all three lakes, Possum Kingdom, Granbury and Limestone to manage lake levels and protect the critical infrastructure of these dams.

In June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gave its final El Niño advisory and moved to a La Niña watch, predicting that it may emerge later this summer. Typically, there is a neutral stage between the two climate patterns.

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in a key patch of the tropical Pacific Ocean average at least 0.5 °C above normal for three consecutive months. On the other side of the spectrum, La Niña occurs when those temperatures average at least 0.5 °C below normal for three consecutive months. "So, there will always be a transition period when conditions are neutral, neither El Niño nor La Niña,” Nielsen-Gammon said. "Indeed, each of those three categories (El Niño, neutral, and La Niña) tends to occur about a third of the time."

The El Niño weather pattern historically brings rain to Texas, La Niña typically brings drought. And the weather pattern between the two phases that is considered neutral, often called “La Nada” occurs when average conditions hold steady.

La Niña also contributes to a more active Atlantic hurricane season. When the Atlantic is very warm, it feeds hurricanes.

"All indicators favor an active hurricane season. We've already seen three named storms in the Gulf of Mexico," said Nielsen-Gammon.

Hurricane Beryl hit the Texas coast on July 8, bringing storm surges and high winds and leaving many coastal communities without power.

The next few months are on track to be very hot and although reservoirs are full, nearly full, or overflowing, water conservation should remain a priority. Drought conditions have been increasing since early June, so conservation efforts will need to continue.

“Most of the Brazos River Basin has received plenty of rain over the past several months," Nielsen-Gammon said. "So, even though the ground typically dries out during the summer and streamflow levels decline, it probably won't be enough to send the region into full-blown drought."

Currently, the Brazos River Basin is beginning to dry out, with about 25 percent experiencing some form of drought intensity. The BRA water supply system is doing very well for the month of July at 99% full.