Drought, Rain, and El Niño: What’s Next for the Brazos Basin?
If April has you reaching for a jacket in the morning and shorts by the afternoon, you’re not imagining things. Spring’s most unpredictable month is living up to its reputation, but the bigger weather story may be what’s coming next, as forecasters point to a noticeably wetter pattern settling in for May and beyond.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the natural climate cycle that affects global weather patterns is in an “El Niño Southern Oscillation-Neutral” phase or ENSO-neutral, referring to average conditions rather than the extremes often referred to as La Niña or El Niño by forecasting organizations. According to NOAA, the current average conditions are expected to remain in place from May to July, but could easily change with El Niño conditions likely to emerge and persist through at least the end of 2026.
So what is El Niño?
In a nutshell, El Niño conditions refer to a cooler, wetter fall and winter for Texas, as warmer ocean waters affect atmospheric conditions. Already, meteorologists and climatologists are forecasting the possibility of strong to very strong El Niño conditions beginning in late spring and lasting through the end of the year.
But whether this will be a record-setting system is still unclear.
What does that mean for the Brazos River Basin, which is currently experiencing drought conditions in about 81% of the basin area, with the Brazos River Authority (BRA) system of reservoirs at 94% of water storage capacity?
According to John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Center at Texas A&M University, a developing El Niño doesn't have much impact on the Brazos River Basin in the summer, except for a reduced risk of tropical cyclones making landfall in Texas. He adds, “The main weather impacts don't kick in until November, when wetter conditions become more likely.”
During the last several months, some areas of the Brazos River Basin have experienced fewer rain events than others.
“Below-normal rainfall has persisted across much of the basin over the past 6 months, with areas in the central and lower portions of the basin generally receiving 4 to 12 inches less rain than normal since late September 2025,” said Aaron Abel, Brazos River Authority’s water services manager.
“Areas in the upper portion of the basin between Possum Kingdom Lake and Lake Granbury have seen near-normal to slightly above normal rainfall, while the watershed from Possum Kingdom Lake to Abilene has generally received around 2 to 6 inches more rain than normal over the last 6 months,” said Abel.
“Drought conditions will depend on the amount of future rainfall and its distribution across the region,” Abel added. “We are currently in what’s considered the wettest period of the year, which is typically April through June, so hopefully we will see some increased rainfall and the decrease in drought coverage and impacts over the next several months.”
In a mid-April report, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicated we may see improvement in drought conditions across most of the Brazos River Basin, with some areas from Lake Granbury to Possum Kingdom Lake being drought-free. However, drought will persist in the upper-most portions of the basin while improving in the lower portions.
Though drought conditions have been improving in some areas of the Brazos River Basin, water conservation efforts are always encouraged.
In many cases, evaporation is a leading cause of changes in reservoir levels, but there are a few things everyone can do to help reduce overall water usage.
- Water your lawn in the early morning or late-night hours
- Drop used ice cubes in a plant rather than down the drain
- Fix the leak, a dripping faucet can waste about a gallon of water per day
Despite signs of a wetter pattern, drought conditions are unlikely to end overnight. Rainfall totals, timing, and distribution will ultimately determine how much relief the Brazos River Basin receives. Until then, water awareness and conservation remain as important as ever.