What climate experts are watching this winter in the Brazos River Basin

As we’ve learned over the past several weeks, winter in the Brazos River Basin doesn’t always mean we’re wearing heavy coats. Sometimes, it’s just a continuation of fall temperatures. Other times, it can feel more like summer. And then there’s the memory of “snow-mageddon,” or Winter Storm Uri in February 2021.

December through February are considered the hydrological winter months, when rainfall, temperatures, and large-scale climate patterns like La Niña do some behind-the-scenes planning for the year ahead.

December remained mild under La Niña conditions, with a possible transition to ENSO-neutral by January, February, or March. ENSO-neutral occurs when weather conditions are neither La Niña nor El Niño.

Although it was a mild December, that doesn’t mean it was unimportant.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), during a La Niña year, winter temperatures tend to be warmer and drier than normal in the South. During an El Niño year, these periods are wetter than usual and can lead to increased flooding.

Aaron Abel, Brazos River Authority’s water services manager, said, “January and February are typically among the driest months of the year across much of the Brazos River Basin, so below-average precipitation during this period is not unusual.”

“Forecasts continue to suggest recurring periods of above-normal temperatures,” Abel adds. “However, despite the overall outlook, some precipitation is still expected, and there will likely be intervals of near-normal to potentially below-normal temperatures over the coming months.”

The BRA’s water supply reservoirs are currently at 91% capacity.

According to John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Center at Texas A&M University, weather conditions for the Brazos River Basin could “tilt ever-so-slightly toward drier than normal conditions through February. By the March–April time frame, we'll be back to neutral conditions, and the precipitation is even more of a coin toss.”

What impact do these climate conditions have on the water supply in the Brazos River Basin?

Abel explains, “Despite the outlook for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, reservoir storage and lake levels are expected to remain relatively stable throughout the winter.”

“Although temperatures may trend above normal, daylight hours are relatively short, which helps keep evaporative losses from the lake surface low,” says Abel. “Additionally, winter months typically have the lowest water use due to dormant vegetation and reduced overall demand from water users. As a result, even with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, less water is leaving the system, which limits the decline in reservoir storage.”

Though the reduced need for watering lawns and landscaping allows water to remain in our reservoirs, there is a downside to the drier winter months. Above-normal temperatures can result in drier landscapes, which could raise fire risk and worsen drought conditions.

“The wet summer led to above-normal seasonal grass coverage,” Nielsen-Gammon explains, “which means above-normal fuel for fires during late winter to mid-spring. This has the potential of being a bad wildfire year.”

The Texas A&M Forest Service recently released its 2026 Texas Dormant Fire Season considerations report to raise awareness of overall environmental conditions and their potential impact on wildfire activity across Texas from late December 2025 through spring 2026.

That report lists Texas’s 15 largest wildfires on record as of March 2024. Five of those wildfires occurred in the upper part of the Brazos River Basin.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, released on December 18 and valid until March 31, indicates the potential for drought development in much of the basin that is not already experiencing some form of drought.

Abel reminds us, “While the BRA water supply system is in great shape, storing almost 1.8 million acre-feet of water, pasture and cropland conditions show impacts of drought first before longer-term effects begin stressing water supply storage. That is what we are seeing in the lower portions of the basin and parts of the far upper basin.”

“As we enter into the spring months, precipitation typically increases, and we will be monitoring that transition,” Abel added. “BRA hydrologists and engineers will continue to closely monitor basin conditions to assess whether implementation of the drought contingency plan will be necessary as we move into the higher-water-demand season.”

The Texas A&M Forest Service reminds us that nine out of ten wildfires are caused by people. Visit their page for wildfire prevention tips. To check burn bans in your county, visit here.