Are drought conditions behind us?

When it comes to April weather, the looming question is, do drought conditions remain in the Brazos River Basin? The answer is yes and no.

Most of the basin has received El Niño pattern rain, which caused several reservoirs to fill to capacity. However, less rain and runoff have occurred across most of the Little River watershed where Lakes Proctor, Belton, Stillhouse Hollow, and Georgetown are situated, which is exactly where drought conditions persist.

Currently, the Brazos River Basin is at 18% drought intensity with abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions.

Where have we been?

In 2023, Texas went through a La Niña pattern (typically dry weather), an ENSO-neutral pattern (mixed rain conditions), and an El Niño weather pattern (generally wetter conditions) all within one year.

Drought conditions within the Brazos River Basin covered as much as 100 percent of the basin for multiple consecutive weeks in mid-August and September of 2023 and were in the 90 percent range during the spring months of March and April of 2023.

It wasn’t until mid-February of 2024 when the basin started seeing the percentage of drought area within the basin drop below 20% and that’s where it has remained.

On April 13, 2023, the Brazos River Basin was experiencing 90% drought intensity with the highest percentage being in the severe category. During the same period this year, only 17% of the basin remained under drought conditions with an intensity of above normal.

Where are we now?

We are still in an El Niño weather pattern, but in February, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that we were moving to a La Niña Watch. NOAA predicts that we will transition to ENSO-Neutral by the April–June period and then transition to La Niña in the June–August period.

John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and director of the Southern Regional Climate Center at Texas A&M University states, “The weather pattern is still being influenced by El Niño and will continue to be until May.”

While the most recent El Niño weather pattern improved drought conditions through most of the Brazos River Basin, the prediction of a La Niña pattern returning this summer could bring rising temperatures.

What’s next?

“Other factors besides El Niño are pointing toward a fairly dry spring, although the first half of April is looking wet so far,” explains Nielsen-Gammon. He continues, “We will probably be warmer than normal, due to the combination of increasing temperatures overall and especially warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures.”

Nielson-Gammon continues, “Whether we end up with lots of 100+ degree days this summer depends on how much rain we get during May and June and whether any of that rain persists into the summer. Lots of rain will mean temperatures in the mid to upper 90s; little rain will mean temperatures in the 100s.”

According to the Weather Channel, since 1950, there have been 25 La Niñas of varying strengths. That’s an average of one La Niña episode every three years or so. With the most recent La Niña ending in late winter of 2023. According to NOAA, most La Niñas last 9 to 12 months.

Should we be concerned about the dry La Niña weather bringing extreme wildfires this year? Nielson-Gammon said It looks like by mid-April there will have been enough rain across Texas to bring an end to the spring wildfire season. “Texas has a second wildfire season during mid to late summer, says Nielson-Gammon, “but those fires aren't generally associated with strong winds so they're much less likely to spread catastrophically.”